The new Rankings as of tomorrow Rafa will have 12,470 points and Novak 10,665. If Djokovic wins Rome, he has 11,710, and Rafa will need that semi final place to stay at No1. with 11,830 points. If that happened, Djokovic would only need to make it to Roland Garros semi final to get to No1, even if Rafa did retain that title.
Rafa will need to get to semi final in Rome to ensure No1 ranking for an extra 3 weeks, until end of Roland Garros.



The points from last year's Rome dropped on May 2th and the points from last year's Madrid will drop on May 16th, so after Rome, on May 16th, the points will be, I think:
Rafa: 12,470 - 400 (for Madrid) + the points which he will gain this year in Rome = 12,070 + ?
Djokovic: 10,665 + 1000 + Rome = 11,665 + ?

I think loosing the No1 Ranking might be good for him right now. It comes with too many burdens & pressure for Rafa. Djokovic might love the limelight but maintaining the No1 proves more difficult holding the spot then actually getting there.