Second Half Kickoff

Steve Tignor
08/08/2010 - 10:04 AM


Maybe you’ve forgotten this; maybe you’ve conveniently forgotten it. But I’m on a roll when it comes to picks. Granted, it’s a short roll, consisting of one tournament, Wimbledon. And granted, I earned it by having the foresight to predict that the two No. 1 players in the world, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams, would win that tournament. Still, there it is. A roll.

Six weeks later and it feels like, if we haven’t entered an entirely new season, we’re beginning a second half that’s been disconnected from the first. We’re on a new surface and a new continent, virtually everyone is starting fresh and with at least the promise of good health. And the Top 3 players, who are all making their North American debuts this week in Toronto, aren’t coming in with a lot of momentum, either positive or negative.

So far in Toronto, Nadal has beaten the (admittedly ridiculous) traffic by helicoptering over to the courts, and Roger Federer has talked about losing to girls in tennis and crying. What’s next for the big two, and for the rest of the field? It’s time to keep the roll going.

First Quarter

There was some talk right after Wimbledon that Nadal would miss this tournament entirely because of his knee treatments. But that seems like a long time ago at this point. He's been fine physically, and his draw as it stands now could be worse. He’d open against the winner of Dancevic-Wawrinka, and the highest seed in his quarter, Roddick, has been feeling “lethargic”—so lethargic that as I write this there’s a chance he might pull out of the event, which would shift the draw around.

The one obvious hurdle in this section is Sam Querrey, who Nadal might get in the third round. Querrey, as we know, has been climbing this season; he’s at No. 16 now, and he’s coming off his biggest career win, over Murray in Los Angeles. He’s also played Nadal tough in the past, taking him to four sets on clay and at the U.S. Open a couple years ago. Querrey matches up well with Rafa. He’s tall enough to handle the topspin, and he can hit through the court from anywhere with his forehand—the down the line in particular has worked for him against Nadal in the past. The only problem for Querrey is that when Nadal is challenged by a big-hitting lower-ranked guy—think Monfils at the Open last year; Tsonga in Key Biscayne this year—he tends to rise to it.

Semifinalist: Nadal

Second Quarter

Here we have the tightest bracket: The No. 4 and 5 seeds, Murray and Soderling, are slotted to play in the quarters. Each will be coachless this week, as Murray, the defending champion, has split with Miles McLagan, while Soderling will have to make do without Magnus Norman, who has an Achilles’ problem (are we going to start seeing coaches pull out with injuries now?).

In between them we see names like Malisse and de Bakker, who have been surging to a degree; Monfils, who is always not quite dangerous; Gulbis, who is struggling in his return; and the best first-round match-up of the tournament, Ferrer versus Nalbandian, who has found the old form once again this week at the Legg Mason. The question is, will he have the energy to use that form in Toronto?
First-round slugfest to watch: Monfils vs. Gonzalez

Semifinalist: Soderling

Third Quarter

This is where things get a little strange. Who is this person at No. 3, his name ignominiously lodged in the middle of the draw? That’s right: It’s “R. Federer.” While he’s in a new spot, his draw looks awfully familiar. Federer might get Falla in the second round, and Berdych in the quarters. In between could be a date with another guy who is never quite as a dangerous as he should be, Nicolas Almagro. If the mid-season break was a positive from a physical standpoint for Nadal, the same should be true from a mental standpoint for Federer. He’s had time to shake Wimbledon off and begin to hear a new coaching voice. By all accounts, he appears eager. The question, I suppose, is how long will it take for him to internalize what that coach, Paul Annacone, says and put any new ideas and directions into his game. Federer doesn’t change with the wind, that we know. But I don’t think it will take long. He knows his career, and his time at the top, aren’t going to last forever.

What about Berdych? How will the Wimbledon finalist handle the new attention and the pressure that comes with it? Things didn’t go so well in Washington, where he lost as the top seed. His road to Federer in the quarters could pass through Gasquet, Dolgopolov, Petzschner, Simon, or Youzhny—a who’s who of the lower second-tier. That’s the tier that Berdych escaped at Wimbledon. We’ll see if he’s left them behind.

Semifinals: Federer

Fourth Quarter

Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic comes in as one of the quietest No. 2 seeds in recent memory. He hasn’t reached any major finals this year, and he’s not surrounded by any controversy. He’s had success in Canada in the past, winning the title in Montreal in 2007; and looking at his draw there’s no reason he can’t have success again this year. There are steady laborers here—Verdasco, Melzer, Benneteau, Hanescu, Stepanek. There’s also another guy who’s been surging in D.C., Baghdatis. Though like Nalbandian, fitness has never gone unquestioned with him, so you have to wonder about his prospects in Toronto. Finally, at the top of the this section, there’s Nikolay Davydenko, who has spent much of this year proving again that he won’t be around when it counts. Is there any reason to expect that to change heading into the U.S. Open?

Semifinals: Djokovic

Semifinals: Nadal d. Soderling; Federer d. Djokovic

Final: Nadal d. Federer